Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Sun-Times Pink Eye: Stroger with big lead over Peraica

Update 2, Monday at 5:30 pm

Public Affairs was incorrect when we reported early this morning, see below, that the Cook County Board President election poll is “another automated, touchpad phone call poll commissioned by the Chicago Sun-Times/NBC-5, similar in methodology to the Sun-Times/NBC-5 gubernatorial poll formally released yesterday morning.”

Public Affairs was informed today by Chicago Sun-Times Political Reporter Scott Fornek that the Sun-Times/NBC-5 Gubernatorial, State Treasurer [also reported today in the Sun-Times], and Cook County Board President polls are not automated polls. Fornek indicated to me that “the polls all used operators who called people based on random digit dialing and read them basically a prepared script of questions-- the way these polls are done, [that is] asked them the questions and got responses.”

Indeed, Fornek’s article, in this morning's Sun-Times, discussing the Cook County Board President’s poll, states [in a side bar included in the print version, but not the online version], Operators used random digit dialing to gather a random sample of 400 likely Cook County voters.”

Public Affairs regrets its error and apologizes to the Chicago Sun-Times, NBC-5 and our readers for any inconvenience caused by same. Public Affairs stands by the remainder of the blog post, below.
Update 1: Monday at 9:25 am

While reasonably accurate, all things considered, Public Affairs' reliable sources were slightly off, with this morning's Chicago Sun-Times poll reporting a lead of 52% to 19% by Todd Stroger[D] over Tony Peraica[R] in the Cook County Board President's race. As indicated below, Public Affairs had predicted the poll would show a 52%- 26% spread for Ald. Todd Stroger [Chicago's 8th Ward]. However, the additional buzz this morning is that the poll results were changed late last night so that the Public Affairs report would be slightly wide of the mark [Shades of LBJ].
The buzz early this morning is that the Chicago Sun-Times will report in this morning’s paper a big lead for Democratic Chicago Ald. Todd Stroger [8th Ward] in his Cook County Board Presidential race with County Commissioner Tony Peraica [R-Riverside]. Reliable sources indicate that the Sun-Times/NBC-5 commissioned poll will show Ald. Stroger with approximately 52% and County Commissioner Peraica with approximately half that total, 26%.

The poll is likely to be criticized by Peraica and others for its methodology and for over-weighting Democrats, even for heavily Democratic Cook County. The poll is another automated, touchpad phone call poll commissioned by the Sun-Times/NBC-5, similar in methodology to the Sun-Times/NBC-5 gubernatorial poll formally released yesterday morning [See here] and discussed Sunday morning on NBC-5's City Desk by NBC-5, WTTW and Chicago Sun-Times Host/columnist Carol ["startling results"] Marin, Sun-Times political reporter Scott ["Illinois is just becoming more and more blue"] Fornek and Roosevelt University's Professor Paul["perhaps a low double digit lead for Rod]" Green .

Such automated touch-pad polls are generally viewed as much less accurate than those using individuals to ask the questions. Further, the Sun-Times gubernatorial poll was roundly criticized today for its small sample size, over-weighting of Democrats and the fact that it shows a projected margin of victory for Blagojevich [30%] almost double that of Blagojevich’s own poll, and far greater leads for Rod than polls commissioned by other media. [See here]. In the words of statisticians, the Sun-Times/NBC-5 polls are becoming synonymous with the word "outlier."

Peraica commissioned a poll almost two months ago that had him in a statistical tie with Stroger.

Look for Peraica to react to the poll on Tuesday morning in a media availability prior to the Cook County Board Meeting scheduled for 10:00 am .

And, at the Board Meeting, look for Peraica to have a shot at obtaining majority support for his motion for the Board to support the appointment by the federal court of a court appointed monitor. As has been true in important budget votes in the last few years, Cook County Commissioner Earlean Collins is likely to be the decisive swing vote.

Indeed, it was Commissioner Collins who provided the vote to make it clear Bobbie Steele would have the requisite votes for interim County Board President, causing Commissioner Claypool to throw in the towel and abort, so to speak, his run for interim County Board President in July. Tomorrow, it may be Collins who will remind Steele how she got there.

Also, look for Commissioner Suffredin [D-Evanston] to move, at the board meeting, for a budget rule that would require 11 votes, instead of the majority nine, on the usual seventeen member board to approve a budget, if it is introduced after January 1 of the new fiscal year.
Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com