Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Giangreco and Berkowitz on cable: 6th, 8th and 10th CD Predictions

Jeff Berkowitz: There is no way that you can tell me that Tammy Duckworth would have been the [Democratic] candidate [in the 6th CD], but for Rahm Emanuel, Dick Durbin and Barack Obama supporting her. It would be Christine Cegelis, who sat in your chair [on this set] many times, who won the Democratic Primary previously [2004] and who almost won this Primary.

Pete Giangreco: It wasn’t all that close.

Jeff Berkowitz: She was two or three points away [about 1200 votes].

Pete Giangreco: Tammy Duckworth won the primary for a lot of reasons. I think she will win the General Election.

Jeff Berkowitz: But, her independence is an issue. That is all I am saying.

Pete Giangreco: As the Tribune said, she is going to shake up these comfy politicians in Washington. The Pioneer Press. The Sun-Times. The Daily Herald [all endorsed her]. The Daily Herald and the Chicago Tribune, these are Republican papers.

Jeff Berkowitz: Not any more.

Pete Giangreco: No, the Tribune has never endorsed a Democratic candidate for President.

Jeff Berkowitz: Yeah, President. But, once you get past that office, they deviate all the time.

Pete Giangreco: They have not endorsed a Democratic candidate for Governor since Pearl Harbor. This is a Republican newspaper.

Jeff Berkowitz: They are unlikely to endorse anybody who is Pro-Life-- so how Republican can they be? Other than for President.

Pete Giangreco: They endorsed Henry Hyde.

Jeff Berkowitz: Well, incumbents. They endorsed Cong. Bobby Rush, probably. They endorse incumbents.
Jeff Berkowitz: [in the 10th CD], I am saying Kirk wins this 55 to 45 %. It’s a better race for Seals [than the Dem. Candidates in 02 and 04], but it is still Kirk’s seat. You agree?

Pete Giangreco: No, I don’t. I think Seals has a shot.

Jeff Berkowitz: So, you are predicting Seals will win?

Pete Giangreco: I think it is going to be very close.
Jeff Berkowitz: Let’s go over to the 8th CD, I’m saying McSweeney comes back. He has been for the Bush tax cuts. He says you have got to make them permanent.

Pete Giangreco: So does Bean.

Jeff Berkowitz: No, she doesn’t want to make them permanent or she won’t say what her position is on them. She is now backing away on the war. I am saying he wins that race in a very close race.

Pete Giangreco: You’re saying McSweeney wins that race?

Jeff Berkowitz: Six percent goes to Bill Scheurer [The third party anti-CAFTA and anti-War candidate, who lost to Bean in 2004 Democratic Primary] and that hurts Bean.

Pete Giangreco: Bean wins in a walk.

Jeff Berkowitz: The Democratic Congressional Campaign committee did a poll [two months ago], but they didn’t tell folks, although they told me, that Scheurer got 6%. If Scheurer gets 6%, then there is 94% left for Bean and McSweeney, I think McSweeney wins by a point or two. [Ed. note, Scheurer was up to 8 percent in last week's Daily Herald/ ABC-7 poll, which has the race as a statistical tie].

Pete Giangreco: She is up double digits. She wins in a walk.

Jeff Berkowitz: [in the Sixth CD] Roskam squeaks by 54 to 46.

Pete Giangreco: Oh, my God, there is no chance he gets to 54. I say …it’s Duckworth by a thousand votes.

Jeff Berkowitz: By a thousand votes. Close.

Pete Giangreco: Very close.
Pete Giangreco, Democratic Campaign Consultant and partner at The Strategy Grooup, joins Jeff Berkowitz tonight and Friday night for predictions and analysis of the 6th, 8th and 10th CD races. See below for the suburban air schedule of Public Affairs for this episode of Public Affairs, which was taped on October 29, 2006.
This episode of Public Affairs airs this week on Monday night, Wednesday night and Friday night at 8:30 pm on Comcast Cable Channel 19 in Bannockburn, Deerfield, Ft. Sheridan, Glencoe, Highland Park, Highwood, Kenilworth, Lincolnshire, Riverwoods and Winnetka.
Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at