Thursday, October 30, 2008

Third Quarter GDP declines (barely), and no recession yet. But, the MSM see it quite differently.

The advance estimate of the change in 3rd Quarter GDP came out this morning (from the U. S. Commerce Department) and it is a somewhat undramatic 0.3 % decline. Think about it, folks, the definition of a recession in the U.S. is two consecutive declines in real output (Goods and services produced in the U.S.), i.e., Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. GDP increased at 0.9 % during the first quarter of 2008 and at 2.8% during the second quarter. So, despite all the hand wringing by the MSM earlier this year, no recession.

Now, we find the decline of GDP during the last quarter-- a quarter stung by one financial sector crisis after another:a limited bail-out of Bear Stearns, a Lehman Bros. bankruptcy, an AIG bailout, a bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a merger of Merrill Lynch into Bank of America and a 700 billion dollar bailout of various financial institutions—is all of 0.3 per cent. Think about that number. There only two smaller numbers that could have been read as putting the U. S. on it’s way to a recession. 0.1 and 0.2. So, the U. S. economy came out at a 0.3% decline. The number could have been, say, a 2% decline or a 4% decline. Instead, the U. S. had a 0.3 % decline. And, this in the face of about a 35% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last year.

Is the stock market predicting a significant decline in GDP over the next year or two? It would seem so. But, the GDP estimate for the last quarter simply doesn’t bear that out. That is what the economists surveyed should have said.

But, take a look instead at what was said. We have a collection of comments from “self-identified economists,” that “the sky is falling.” Remember, these folks could be people who took two courses in economics and flunked them both. Or maybe they majored in Soviet economics or urban economics. Or, maybe they got a Ph. D. in economics from Oklahoma State. Take it from this reporter who has forgotten more macroeconomics than most of the “commenters,” will ever know: these folks have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

Will we suffer a dramatic decline in 4th quarter GDP, and learn of that in late January, 2009, confirming we are in a recession? Could very well be. The Masters of the Universe: President Bush, the Democratic led, Pelosi-Reid Congress; moderate Republican Harvard MBA, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson; liberal MIT trained in economics, former Princeton faculty member and Fed Chief Bernanke have led the country down the path of a 700 billion dollar, wasteful government bailout.

The 700 billion dollar bailout purported to deal with a mortgage mess very much caused by quasi-governmental entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and their angels: House Financial Services committee Chairman, Cong. Barney Frank(D-MA), Senate Banking Committee Chairman Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) and others too timid or self interested to deal with Fannie and Freddie. All of those pols, entities and their CEOs stimulated mortgages for many who simply couldn’t afford them and then facilitated their packaging into “insecure,” securities that would eventually weaken the balance sheets of many financial institutions.

The bailout may not work and even if it does, it will have been a costly, inefficient way to revive the American Economy and its financial sector. The recovery may be slower than it should have been as a result or it may even be delayed by the bailout. But, one thing is for sure, today’s GDP report does not necessarily portend terrible things for the U. S. economy, current or future, notwithstanding the claptrap you will hear from the mainstream business media, most of whom know nothing about the Chicago School of Economics, and therefore know little economics and even less about business. You can take that to the bank and collect interest, assuming it is not doing business with Chairmans Frank and Dodd.
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Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
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Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include shows taped on October 12 with Senator Rutherford and former Republican Primary candidate for Governor Ron Gidwitz, a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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© 2008 Public Affairs with Jeff Berkowitz
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Better than an Obama infomercial: Sen.Rutherford on Obama throughout the State of Illinois: Cable and Streaming, splicing and dicing, the Obamamatic

The "Public Affairs," show with 16th year Republican State Legislator, Senator Dan Rutherford, is airing this week throughout the State of Illinois , and it will continue to do so thru Sunday on the Illinois Channel. You can watch it on the web through Sunday on the Illinois Channel website by clicking the picture of Senator Rutherford and also you can watch the show on the Illinois Channel's cable outlets. You can also watch the show with Senator Rutherford, here. And, Go here for more about the show's topics and Senator Rutherford .

The Illinois Channel cable outlets air a two hour, weekly block of programming on cable. The show with Senator Rutherford (R-Pontiac) is the first of four segments airing on the Illinois Channel this week, and will air starting at the beginning and continuing about 30 minutes into that two hour block of programming. Please click on Distribution at the Illinois Channel website or click here to find the cable airing days, time at which the two hour block of programming begins and the channel for your location.
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Some examples of the scheduled times and channels for the show with Senator Rutherford on the Illinois Channel this week of October 27, 2008 are given below:

Bloomington, Insight Cable Ch. 20, Saturday, 11:00 am; Sunday, 7:00 pm

Normal, Insight Cable. Ch. 20, 11:00 am; Sunday, 7:00 pm


Belvidere, Comcast Cable Ch. 20, Thursday, 6:00 pm

Freeport, Comcast Cable Ch. 17, Thursday, 6:00 pm

Rockford, Comcast Cable Ch. 17, Thursday, 6:00 pm

Galesburg, Cable Ch. 22, Thursday-Sunday, 9:00 am, 2:00 pm. 8:30 pm

Bolingbrook Community TV, Cable Ch. 6, Friday, 6:00 pm

Chicago CANTV, Cable Ch. 21, Saturday, 9:00 am

Chicago CANTV, Cable Ch. 19, Sunday, 8:30 am

DeKalb, Cable Ch. 14, Wed., 9:00 pm, Friday, 7:00 pm and Saturday, 6:00 am

Evanston, Cable Ch. 16, Sat., 12:00 pn,

Lake Forest and Lake Bluff, Cable Ch. 17, Wed. - Fri.,9:30 pm

Naperville, Wide open west Cable Ch. 6, Saturday, 12:00 pm

Naperville, Comcast Cable Ch. 10, Wed., Th., 5:00 pm: Saturday, 12:00 pm

Palatine, Comcast ch. 6, Wed., 6:00 pm, Sat., 9:00 am, Sun.,6:00 pm

Romeoville, Comcast Cable Ch. 6, Wed., Th., Fri., Sat., Sunday; 5:00 pm

Springfield, Municipal Ch. 18, Sat. and Sun., 10:00 am

Springfield, Insight Cable Ch. 22, Fri., Sat., and Sun., 10:00pm

Springfield, Insight Cable Ch. 18, Sat., Sun., 5:00 am

Westmont, Comcast Cable Ch. 16, Wed., Friday, 6:00 am, 9:00 am, 12:00 pm, 3:00pm, 6:00 pm, 9:00 pm.

Winnetka, Comcast Cable Ch. 18, Tu., Th., 10:00 am and 10:00 pm

To find the days, time and channel for which the two hour block of Illinois Channel programming begins in your village or municipality, please click on Distribution at the Illinois Channel website or click here to find the cable airing days, time at which the two hour block of programming begins and the channel for your location. The show with State Senator Rutherford (R-Pontiac, 53rd Dist.) starts at the beginning of the two hour block of programming.
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Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include shows taped on October 12 with Senator Rutherford and former Republican Primary candidate for Governor Ron Gidwitz, a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Two major reasons why McCain lost the Presidency (to be continued; there are more, for sure)

If you can’t challenge Obama on his character and judgment in his dealings with Tony Rezko, what can you challenge him on? Don’t ask me. Ask John McCain. He’ll have plenty of time to explain these decisions as he retires to the Senate to refine McCain-Feingold on campaign finance reform, to resist tax cuts, to...
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Two major reasons why McCain lost the Presidency (to be continued; there are more, for sure)

1. McCain’s campaign had no central positive theme. What was McCain’s message? “I am not Bush.” Kind of like Nixon saying, “I am not a crook.” Hardly an accomplishment. Hardly words of inspiration. McCain had themes for his campaign. But, no central theme. Country First? More a bumper sticker than a theme. Further, it generally appeared McCain did not quite understand or believe in his campaign’s core arguments.

From the get go, McCain should have talked about the hope, growth and opportunity that comes from low taxes. About the jobs that come from low taxes. About the capital formation that comes from low capital gains taxes—and these are taxes Obama wanted to raise, and these taxes would kill new jobs. Instead, McCain loved to talk about corporate greed on Wall St. That certainly didn’t energize Republicans. And for those Democrats and Independents who like that line of pandering, they would prefer a real Dem to a fake Dem.

McCain should have hammered home, again and again, the hope, growth and opportunity that come from the school vouchers-school choice (for inner cities) that he supports and Obama doesn’t. He should have emphasized that while charter schools are good, school vouchers are even better to empower low-income parents. He might not have won the votes of inner-city parents, most of whom are wedded to the Democratic Party, but McCain would have won the votes of suburbanites—who want their President to do something effective for those inner city kids. When the school voucher topic came up in the third debate, it was like McCain picked up a fumble, but then fumbled for words. He never could benefit from a turnover. McCain always bragged about being fifth from the bottom of his class at the Navel Academy. It really is not something to brag about. Smarts can be helpful. McCain should have studied more.

McCain should have emphasized his promotion of PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS, which would benefit all of America, including, as Obama likes to put it, the middle class, but also low and high-income people. Quality jobs for everybody. That might even beat the vague “change you can believe in,” slogan championed by Obama. Private sector jobs would also generate more private health insurance choices.

But, if truth be told, McCain has never been, deep down, a big tax cutter or even a big believer in the free market. He was against the 2001 Bush tax cuts, against the 2003 Bush tax cuts. In 2006, McCain told this journalist he would make the Bush tax cuts permanent because to repeal the Bush tax cuts now would be the same as increasing taxes and he is not for tax increases. Not exactly straight-talk, not even comprehensible talk. In short, McCain appeared not to believe in or understand his own campaign themes, such as they were. Not a formula for success.

Also, McCain should have played up his successful influence on the execution of the Iraq War during the last two years. Like Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, McCain supported authorizing the President to take military action in Iraq. But, unlike Clinton, Kerry and Obama, McCain criticized the conduct and management of the War by Bush and Rumsfeld, with an eye to making the requisite changes to win. Ultimately McCain, with his support of the Surge, helped stabilize Iraq, and put America and its allies on a path to win the War. But, you would never know this from the McCain campaign. Another missed opportunity to trumpet a popular central theme and issue contrast with Obama.

Instead of the above themes, the McCain campaign stumbled on Obama, the wealth redistributor v. Joe, the plumber, as a closing campaign theme. The trouble with that redistribution argument is that it seems to concede that Obama will lower taxes on those families earning less than $250,000 per year. That’s not a concession Republicans want to make. Indeed, another Joe, Biden, the VP candidate, said on Monday the threshold for getting a tax cut is 150K, not 250K. But, it’s too late, this is an argument McCain, the presidential candidate, has already conceded.

2. The McCain Campaign never effectively challenged Obama. Americans want their successful presidential candidates to challenge their opponents in the same way they would challenge our country’s enemies, directly and effectively. They want the candidate’s campaign to be emblematic of an efficiently run Presidency. But, with McCain, there was no coherency to the campaign. A bit about Bill Ayers, but people might have asked what was McCain saying. It was wrong for Obama to associate with a washed up, Terrorist? Ayers never renounced his terrorism? Ayers was a radical educator whose core beliefs conflicted with middle class America? Obama consorted with Ayers, the radical educator, for years? McCain said the American people deserved to know the truth about Ayers. But, then he wouldn’t tell us what that truth was. It was left to the voter to figure out. Swell. That’s leadership you can believe in?

And, with Rev. Wright, McCain simply said his campaign would not raise the issue of Pastor Wright. Why? A twenty year association of Obama with a Pastor who ranted “God Damn America,” and said the U. S. Government wanted to give, or did give, Aids to African-Americans. And, Wright seemed to say Americans were responsible for or deserved 9/11. And, Wright’s church web site warned members to beware of “middle class,” values. (The Obama campaign, on the other hand, contends its driving force is to help the middle class)

Yet, all of that Pastor Wright stuff was ruled out of bounds by McCain. No issue as to judgment by Obama in choosing to have Pastor Wright marry him and baptize his daughters? No issue as to Obama sitting in that church, becoming aware of what was being said and never speaking out against it until this year? Obama didn’t get religion until the final stages of his primary campaign for President? And, McCain wouldn’t challenge Obama on all of that? Fighter John McCain? I don’t think so.

McCain did a little bit about convicted felon Tony Rezko, but never did a clearly directed message. Why not focus on Obama’s lack of judgment in speaking daily with Rezko during Obama’s U. S. Senate run in 2004? Even before Rezko was under investigation, Obama should have known to steer clear of this wheeler-dealer and conniver. But, most of all, there was Obama’s lack of judgment in doing a house deal with a guy who was known to be under investigation by the Feds. What was Obama thinking? Was he thinking?

If you can’t challenge Obama on his character and judgment in his dealings with Tony Rezko, what can you challenge him on? Don’t ask me. Ask John McCain. He’ll have plenty of time to explain these decisions as he retires to the Senate to refine McCain-Feingold on campaign finance, to resist tax cuts, to promote “cap and trade,” as a means of slowing economic growth in this country to diminish its carbon imprint, to resist drilling in ANWR and to became a member of the Gang of 60 to confirm Barack Obama’s judicial appointment of Cass Sunstein to the United States Supreme Court.

Would the last person leaving the McCain-Palin campaign office tonight please turn off the lights. You know, conserving energy and all that sort of thing. The party’s over. Except for perhaps an encore performance of Sarah Palin—on SNL. That would be change you can believe in?
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Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include shows taped on October 12 with Senator Rutherford and former Republican Primary candidate for Governor Ron Gidwitz, a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Monday, October 27, 2008

Better than Monday Night Football: Ron Gidwitz, once and perhaps future candidate for Governor, featured tonight on Cable and Streaming

Ron Gidwitz: ...I am basically a libertarian if you want to give me a label.
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Jeff Berkowitz: ...You're thinking about it?

Ron Gidwitz: I would love to run for governor, again. I found it to be...
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Tonight's Chicago edition of "Public Affairs," features civic and business leader Ron Gidwitz, who ran, unsuccessfully, for Governor in the 2006 Republican Primary. However, it was a relatively frugal campaign and Gidwitz may have enough left, of his two hundred million dollar, or so, net worth, even after the recent stock market decline, for yet another run for Guv.

The show airs throughout the City of Chicago tonight at 8:30 pm on Cable Ch. 21 (CANTV) and tonight's Aurora edition of "Public Affairs," airs on cable in Aurora and surrounding areas at 7:30pm on ACTV-10. The Aurora station, Aurora Community Television, Comcast Cable Ch. 10, reaches all of Aurora, Bristol, Big Rock and parts of Oswego, Sandwich, Sugar Grove and Montgomery.
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The show featuring Gidwitz also airs this week in the Chicago Metro suburbs. See below for that airing schedule.
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You can watch tonight's show with Gidwiz, taped October 12, 2008, on your computer. **********************************************************
Ron Gidwitz is a civic, business and education leader in Chicago. His prior appointed, civic positions include Chairman of the State Board of Education and President of the Board of the City Colleges of Chicago. Sales revenue of Helene Curtis, a cosmetics company started by Gidwitz's father, increased six-fold while Gidwitz was President of the Company from 1979 to 1996. The Company was sold then to Unilever for a billion dollars, with the Gidwitz family receiving 200 million dollars of the sale price.

Gidwitz ran for Illinois Governor in the 2006 Republican Primary, coming in fourth out of four candidates, with 11% of the vote. He would "love to run for Governor again," and will make a decision on a 2010 run after the November 4, 2008 election.

Gidwitz debates and discusses the issues with Show Host and Executive Legal Recruiter Jeff Berkowitz, including state spending and taxes, zero based budgeting, the federal bailout, investing in diversified portfolios, the likelihood and causes of increased future inflation in the United States, the list of potential Republican candidates for Governor in 2010, the McCain-Obama race, Obama's wins (and a loss) leading up to the Presidential race with McCain and much, much more.
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Public Affairs Chicago Metro suburban airing schedule.

The show featuring Ron Gidwitz is airing this week in the North and Northwest Chicago Metro suburbs in its regular slot:

Tomorrow night (Tuesday) at 8:30 pm on Comcast Cable Channel 19 in Buffalo Grove, Elk Grove Village, Hoffman Estates, parts of Inverness, Lincolnwood, Morton Grove, Niles, Northfield, Palatine, Rolling Meadows and Wilmette

and Tomorrow night (Tuesday) at 8:30 pm on Comcast Cable Channel 35 in Arlington Heights, Bartlett, Glenview, Golf, Des Plaines, Hanover Park, Mt. Prospect, Northbrook, Park Ridge, Prospect Heights, Schaumburg, Skokie, Streamwood and Wheeling.

and on Monday (tonight), Wednesday and Friday at 8:30 pm on Comcast Cable Channel 19 in Bannockburn, Deerfield, Ft. Sheridan, Glencoe, Highland Park, Highwood, Kenilworth, Lincolnshire, Riverwoods and Winnetka.
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Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include shows taped on October 12 with Senator Rutherford and former Republican Primary candidate for Governor Ron Gidwitz, a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Sunday, October 26, 2008

Berkowitz to join Appel, Mullins and Johnston tonight on Roeser's radio show

Jeff Berkowitz will join Republican political consultant and analyst Charlie Johnston (worked on the 2006 McSweeney for 8th CD U. S. Rep. campaign); Brendan Appel, Republican challenger to State Senator Jeff Schoenberg (D-Evanston); and Eugene Mullins, Communications Director to Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, as a guest tonight on Tom Roeser’s weekly, Sunday, call-in radio show, Political Shoot-out, WLS 890 AM Radio, from 8:00 pm to 9:00 pm.
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You say you don't live within the WLS broadcast area? Not to worry. You can go here to listen to the program, live, on the web.[You may encounter some technical problems in signing on-- allow five minutes, or so, for following the prompts for technical difficulties, and you should be able to hear WLS live on the web] See here for Tom’s Blog which has Tom's thoughts on a great many matters, political and otherwise.

Upset with something Berkowitz said on his show [www.PublicAffairsTv.com] or the [Public Affairs YouTube.com page], something he wrote on this blog or just the way he looks? Tom Roeser’s show on Sunday night is your chance to fire back. A free fire zone, so to speak. Also, you can help shape the show and its topics by calling in with your questions and comments—312-591-8900. Obama mamas (Bean), McCain mavericks (Kirk)Democrats, Republicans, 700 Billion dollar Bailout promoters (Kirk, Bean and Fred Barnes), Libertarians, Independents, Communists [no collect calls, please], Palin critics, Palin groupies, Biden mistake defenders, gun grabbers, backstabbers, gun clingers, gun slingers, outside agitators and others are, of course, all welcome.

Tonight's show may touch on:

--Is Cook County Board President Todd Stroger the anti-Reformer?

--Is State Senate candidate Brendan Appel (R-9th Dist) a supporter of school vouchers-school choice?

Is McCain losing the election because he
·Made half arguments on Ayers and Acorn
·Never raised Pastor Wright and Obama’s twenty year association with a guy who said, on video, God Damn America
·Never raised the radical education views of Ayers and the close association of Ayers and Obama on Ayers' so called education reform.
·Never effectively raised Obama’s close ties to indicated felon Tony Rezko.
·Never effectively made the argument that Obama did nothing to take on public corruption in Illinois and in the Democratic Party
·Made half arguments on tax cuts, never effectively challenged Obama on his tax cuts proposals?
·Did not challenge Obama on his capital gains tax increase
·Did not Challenge Obama on his payroll tax increase?
·Never effectively raised the twelve state voter fraud challenges of Acorn
·Never argued for two party government in Washington, DC.
·Never explained his health care proposal well.

--Can Joe the Plumber unclog the blocked arteries of the McCain campaign?

-- Did the bailout flop?

--Can McCain not survive his inability to speak clearly, cogently and persuasively about his views?

-- why don't the presidential debate moderators ever ask follow-up questions. Do they not know how?

-- Will the Powell endorsement of Obama matter?

--Was Powell's endorsement of Obama a repudiation of the Republcan Party?

--Was putting Palin on the ticket a major mistake by McCain?

--is Fox News Channel in the tank for McCain? as much so as MSNBC is in the tank for Obama?

--Does the center right bias of Fox and the far left bias of MSNBC make CNN look "fair and balanced."

-- Can McCain turn around Obama's big lead in electoral votes (about a hundred) or is it too late?

--What are the differences of Obama and McCain on economic policy

--Did Sarah Palin ever demonstrate she has the knowledge of domestic and foreign policy issues to go the distance,

----can Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills) catch Cong. Manzullo (R-Egan) in the 16th CD.

This reporter doesn't know the topics for tonight—they are determined by Mr. Roeser, with some incisive suggestions, no doubt, by his lovely, energetic and intelligent wife Lillian. However, an educated guess is that the questions will consist of various Illinois, national and Presidential political issues, possibly selected from the above, or below, questions, some of which are holdovers from prior episodes of "Political Shootout," or "Public Affairs."

Of course, you can call and ask any of the below questions or whatever you like. As with University of Chicago Ph. D. prelim questions in economics over the years, many of the questions on Political Shoot-out stay the same each week, only the answers change [or do they?]. And you are Free to Choose, so to speak, as this is the land of Milton Friedman, the late, great Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics from the University of Chicago [WWMFS, i.e., what would Milton Friedman say? is the question we classically ask, followed with:


--Is there something fishy about the compensation of WTTW's, NBC-5's and the Sun-Times Carol Marin?

--Did WTTW's Joel Weisman get it way wrong when he stated on a recent Chicago Week in Review that "the only difference on economic issues [between Obama and McCain] is that Obama wants to lower taxes on the 'middle,' class."

--Did none of the panelists challenge Weisman because (a)they all share his liberal bias, (b) they are all wusses, (c) some are conflicted because they are clients of Weisman, (d) all of the above, (e) none of the above

--Does Weisman have a major league conflict of interest that nobody in the MSM wants to raise? Why?

--Why did only one member of the MSM go after State's Attorney candidate Anita Alvarez (D) for her bizarre defense of taking contributions from those "under investigation."

--Are the MSM generally in the tank for Alvarez?

--Do the MSM think Alvarez ought to be able to gerrymander the questions she gets in a presser?

-- Could Paul Vallas win as an Independent for Governor?

-- Who is the favorite to win the Republican Primary for Governor?

--Who is the favorite to win the Democratic Primary for Governor?

--Has Keith Oblermann completely lost his mind?

--Who is most liberal: Olbermann, Maddow or Matthews?

--Which network is most biased: Fox News Channel, MSNBC, PBS, CNN, ABC, NBC or CBS.

--Is Tim Russert turning over in his grave when he sees the growing dominance of Olbermann, Maddow and Matthews over what is left of the NBC news division.

--Will Cong. Jackson be the next Junior Senator from the State of Illinois? Or will it be Tammy Duckworth? Cong. Jan Schakowsky? Cong. Rahm Emanuel? Lisa Madigan? Senator Donne Trotter?

--Does the Chicago Public School system spend more than $14,000 per kid per year to try to educate kids? Does Arne Duncan tell the truth about this? If not, why not?

--Was Barack Obama Emil Jones' show pony, as Senator Rauschenberger contends? [watch here]

--Was Obama way too cautious in his handling of the Pastor Disaster? in his selection of a VP? Will Pastor Wright be an issue in the Presidential race in the next 44 days?

--Is Obama's cautious nature both his strength and his weakness?

--IsMcCain suffering from buyer's remorse?

--Are voters still concerned that they do not share Obama's values? Will that concern be offset by citizen concern over the "bailout economy."

--Will voters become increasingly concerned about Gov. Palin's lack of national experience lack of knowledge of national security or foreign policy issues? Will the debate with Biden do in Palin?

--In light of what has transpired about Rev. Wright, Rezko and Ayers, does Sen. Dillard reqret the TV ad he cut for Obama last year. [Watch Sen. Dillard discuss this topic].

-Will the state GOP cave in the next few months on its hostility to increased taxes? Will House Republican leader Cross lead the capitulation?

-Is it now unlikely that 2006 10th CD Democratic nominee Dan Seals [D-Wilmette] can come back to beat Cong. Kirk [R-Highland Park] this year?

--Does Obama's presence at the top of the ballot give Seals an increasingly small chance to beat suburban agenda Kirk? Are both Seals and Kirk playing a prevent defense? Isn't that a dumb strategy for Seals?

--What do Seals and Oberweis have in common?

-Is WTTW's Chicago Tonight in need of an aggressive political interviewer to boost its sagging ratings and its lack of balance? Which cable TV personality in the Chicago Metro area could provide it?

--Did WTTW gets it's money's worth of convention coverage from Marin, Brackett and Samuels?

--Should Chicago Week in Review be renamed "The Week reviewed by liberals."

--Is Carol Marin just a "Working gal."

--Is it past time for a change in leadership in the State GOP?

--Will Andy McKenna, Jr. be kicked upstairs after the November 4, 2008 election? Are the money guys getting restless?

- Could Colonel Jill Morgenthaler (D-Des Plaines) upset first term Republican incumbent Cong. Peter Roskam in the Illinois 6th CD? Watch Morgenthaler go after Roskam here. Why is Roskam hiding from Public Affairs? Why does Roskam hide from probing questions?

--Could Scott Harper upset ten year Republican incumbent Cong. Judy Biggert in the Illinois 13th CD. Watch Harper go after Biggert here. Is Biggert hiding from Public Affairs? Biggert hiding from probing questions?

-- Is Ozinga a likely winner over Halvorsen in the 11th? Halvorsen just wrong for the District?

--Could Greenberg upset Bean in the 8th CD? Watch a virtual conversation w/Bean-Greenberg here. Where will Greenberg get the money to finance such an upset?

--Does the City Club of Chicago exhibit bad judgment or bias in it's decisions as to whom to invite or not to invite to speak to the Club.

--When the City Club of Chicago invited Republican Cong. Kirk to speak, it followed up on that with an invitation to his opponent, Democrat Dan Seals, to speak. Why were Democrat Seals and 8th CD Republican Nominee Steve Greenberg treated differently by the City Club of Chicago? Liberal Democratic Bias?
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Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include shows taped on October 12 with Senator Rutherford and former Republican Primary candidate for Governor Ron Gidwitz, a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Friday, October 24, 2008

Cong. Manzullo and his 16th CD Democratic Challenger, Robert Abboud on Cable this Saturday and Streaming

“Public Affairs,” interviews with Congressman Don Manzullo (R-Egan) and his Democratic opponent, Robert Abboud, Barrington Hills Village President, air this Saturday afternoon in Rockford, Freeport and Belvidere and other 16th Cong. Dist. communities, listed below, on Comcast Cable Ch. 57. The program with Abboud airs at 4:00 pm and that is followed at 4:30 pm by the program with Cong. Manzullo.

Jeff Berkowitz, Host and Producer of Public Affairs, and executive legal recruiter, debates and discusses bailout and other congressional issues with candidate Robert Abboud (taped on September 21, 2008) and Cong. Manzullo (taped on September 30, 2008). A Bush Administration 700 billion-dollar bailout proposal was rejected by Congress in a Sep. 29, 2008 vote, but approved, with “sweeteners,” in an Oct. 3, 2008 vote.

You may watch the Abboud program on your computer, here, a previous program with Abboud here and the Manzullo program here. For more details about the Abboud and Manzullo programs, click the more info button to the right of the viewing picture for each show watched on your computer.

In addition to Rockford, Freeport and Belvidere, the Public Affairs programs, referenced above, featuring 16th CD Republican incumbent Cong. Manzullo (Egan) and his Democratic opponent, Robert Abboud (Barrington Hills), air tomorrow afternoon in the following communities: Byron, Mount Morris, Oregon and Polo.

Partial Transcripts of the Abboud and Cong. Manzullo shows are included, below:

Jeff Berkowitz: It sounds like—I know you wanted to give a caveat that you wanted more information, so forth—

Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills, 16th CD candidate): Yeah.

Jeff Berkowitz: But, it sounds like you would be likely to support this bailout legislation, 700 billion dollars, if you were in Congress this week and had a bailout vote, as it sounds likely we will. Based on what you know today, sounds like you would probably support it.

Robert Abboud: Because the alternative is, if we let them fail, it will create chaos in the—

Jeff Berkowitz: I am not arguing, I am just saying I want to get that clear. Sounds like you [would] probably support it.

Robert Abboud: Yeah, that’s probably right. Have to see the legislation, but-

Jeff Berkowitz: As you sense, so would Don Manzullo. So what’s the difference between you and Don being there?
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Jeff Berkowitz: Back to you and Don Manzullo, how would he be acting differently than you are, here?

Robert Abboud: Well, there are two things. First off, I would have been looking at this problem ten years earlier because I would have been very concerned about the condition of where we are in the banking laws that have allowed us to change the risk management from an individual strategy to a commodity strategy. Secondly, I would be looking very closely, much more closely than he is, at the management structure of how this bailout is actually going to occur.
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Robert Abboud (16th CD Democratic Nominee; Village President, Barrington Hills), interviewed on September 21, 2008
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Jeff Berkowitz: …a 700 billion dollar bailout vote on-

Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD): That’s correct.

Jeff Berkowitz: September 29th [2008]

Cong. Don Manzullo: Right.

Jeff Berkowitz: One third of the Republicans voted for it, Two thirds voted against it.

Cong. Don Manzullo: Right.

Jeff Berkowitz: Forty percent of the Democrats voted against it. It failed, you voted no.

Cong. Don Manzullo: That’s correct.

Jeff Berkowitz: In thirty seconds or less, why did you vote no. You’ve heard people say—the Country needed this. Some people would say it was unpatriotic to vote no.

Cong. Don Manzullo: The Illinois Delegation split 9 to 9 on it, which is very interesting.
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Cong. Don Manzullo: I talked to Mark [Kirk (R)], I talked to Melissa [Bean (D)]. I mean, we’re good friends, the Illinois delegation is very—

Jeff Berkowitz: So, why did they vote yes?

Cong. Don Manzullo: This is a vote of conscience.

Jeff Berkowitz: You’re saying that they thought that was the best thing for the country.

Cong. Don Manzullo: That’s correct and I’m not going to criticize them.

Jeff Berkowitz: Your vote was a vote of conscience, too?

Cong. Don Manzullo: It was also a vote of conscience.
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Jeff Berkowitz: Tell us, why was it a vote of conscience to vote no.

Cong. Don Manzullo: Well, because of the nature of the bill that created a dictator.

Jeff Berkowitz: Who was that dictator?

Cong. Don Manzullo: The dictator would be the Secretary of Treasury.

Jeff Berkowitz: For the moment, that would be Hank Paulson.

Cong. Don Manzullo: That would be Hank Paulson.

Jeff Berkowitz: And, it could change to be a Democrat or a [another] Republican in 2009?

Cong. Don Manzullo: It could be anybody. Paulson asked for unprecedented powers.
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Cong. Don Manzullo: He [Paulson] had authority to spend 700 billion dollars in thirty days.

Jeff Berkowitz: He did?

Cong. Don Manzullo: I mean he could have done that.

Jeff Berkowitz: Unless Congress voted and said [the Treasury Secretary couldn't] spend that [additional] 350 billion dollars.

Cong. Don Manzullo: By a veto proof majority and that’s very difficult to do.
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Cong. Don Manzullo: …The other reason [why I voted against it] is we had no guarantee this would work. It was risky, it was untested [and] unprecedented and there were alternatives out there…The third problem is that we could solve this problem through the SEC by changing the accounting rules [Mark to Market] that really hamstring the institutions when it comes to valuing these instruments that hold the mortgages…
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Cong. Don Manzullo: What’s important is that we should do everything possible that is reasonable and quick before we undertake something draconian such as dumping 700 billion dollars into the hands of a person that could spend it the way he wants to.
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Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD), interviewed on September 30, 2008
*******************************************
Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area, in Rockford, Freeport and Belvidere and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include shows taped on October 12 with Senator Rutherford and former Republican Primary candidate for Governor Ron Gidwitz, a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Better than Matthews or Brokaw: Berkowitz w/Hamos and Rutherford on Obama, McCain, Taxes, Spending and much more, Cable in Rockford and Streaming

“Public Affairs,” interviews with State Rep. Julie Hamos(D-Evanston, 18th Dist.) and State Senator Dan Rutherford (R-Pontiac, 53rd Dist.) air this evening in Rockford and other nearby communities, listed below, on Comcast Cable Ch. 17. The program with Rep. Hamos airs at 8:00 pm and that is followed at 8:30 pm by the program with Sen. Rutherford.

Jeff Berkowitz, Host and Producer of Public Affairs, and executive legal recruiter, debates and discusses McCain v. Obama and various state legislative and political issues with Rep. Hamos (taped on September 28, 2008) and assessments of Obama's performance while in the State Senate, state legislative issues and the future status of the State GOP with Sen. Rutherford (taped on October 12, 2008). More detailed lists of the topics for tonight's shows are included, below.

You may watch the Hamos program on your computer and you may watch the Rutherford program on your computer.

In addition to Rockford, the Public Affairs programs, referenced above, featuring Rep. Hamos and Sen. Rutherford, air tonight in the following communities: Byron, Cedarville, Cherry Valley, Loves Park, Machesney Park, Mount Morris, New Milford, Portions of Ogle County, Oregon, Polo, Stillman Valley, Winnebago, Portions of Boone County and Poplar Grove.
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Topics discussed on tonight’s show with State Rep. Hamos, chair of the Mass Transit committee, include why she thinks Senator Obama should be President of the United States, e.g., his skills and strength in handling and bringing people together, his smarts, his style, his judgment, his political courage; what has Senator McCain accomplished in the Senate; the McCain-Obama roles in the Bailout legislation; the Madigan-Blagojevich stalemate; the state deficit and potential cures; should there be an increase in the income tax, and if yes, how should the revenue be used? Will there be an increase in 2009 in the state income tax? Free rides for seniors and the impact of that program on RTA finances; the role of Republicans in passing key legislation; will the Governor be indicted? Likely gubernatorial candidates in 2010?
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Topics discussed on tonight’s show with Senator Rutherford include the future of the State GOP, potential for improvement of the State GOP’s fortunes in 2008 and 2010, likely gubernatorial candidates in 2010, including Rutherford? assessment of Obama as a State Senator, including his 130"Present" votes as a State Senator; is Obama indecisive? Does he speak out on the issues? should the state lottery be leased, should there be a state capital plan, and if yes, how should it be financed; should there be an increase in the income tax in 2009, and if yes, how should the revenue be used? should there be universal health care? Likely candidates for Senate President.
*******************************************
Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora and Rockford on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include shows taped on October 12 with Senator Rutherford and former Republican Primary candidate for Governor Ron Gidwitz, a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Better than Wallace or Maddow; Berkowitz with State Sen. Rutherford on Obama's performance in the Senate and much more, Cable and soon Streaming .

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This week’s suburban edition of "Public Affairs," features State Senator Dan Rutherford (R-Pontiac, 53rd Dist.) discussing and debating with Show Host and Executive Legal Recruiter Jeff Berkowitz the performance of Senator Obama as a State Senator, including the significance of Obama's 130"Present" votes during his eight years in the State Senate [Senator Rutherford has taken no present votes in 16 years in the General Assembly]; various state legislative financial issues, including spending, taxes, a capital plan, bonding and the lease of the state lottery; and the future of the State GOP, including a possible run by Senator Rutherford and others for Governor in 2010.

Senator Rutherford was the Republican nominee in 2006 for Secretary of State and he lost that race to the Democratic Incumbent, Jesse White. Senator Rutherford was in the State House for a decade and he has been a state senator for the last six years. Sen. Rutherford has been a VP at Servicemaster for the last 18 years.

See, below, for the Chicago Metro suburban airing schedule of "Public Affairs,"
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You can also watch, within a day or two, this week's suburban episode of "Public Affairs," with State Senator Dan Rutherford on your computer. This show was taped on October 12, 2008.
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Public Affairs Chicago Metro suburban airing schedule.

The show featuring State Senator Rutherford is airing this week in the North and Northwest Chicago Metro suburbs in its regular slot:

Tonight (Tuesday) at 8:30 pm on Comcast Cable Channel 19 in Buffalo Grove, Elk Grove Village, Hoffman Estates, parts of Inverness, Lincolnwood, Morton Grove, Niles, Northfield, Palatine, Rolling Meadows and Wilmette

and Tonight (Tuesday) at 8:30 pm on Comcast Cable Channel 35 in Arlington Heights, Bartlett, Glenview, Golf, Des Plaines, Hanover Park, Mt. Prospect, Northbrook, Park Ridge, Prospect Heights, Schaumburg, Skokie, Streamwood and Wheeling.

and on Monday, Wednesday and Friday at 8:30 pm on Comcast Cable Channel 19 in Bannockburn, Deerfield, Ft. Sheridan, Glencoe, Highland Park, Highwood, Kenilworth, Lincolnshire, Riverwoods and Winnetka.
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The "Public Affairs," show featuring Senator Rutherford will also air throughout the City of Chicago on Monday night, Nov. 3, 2008, at 8:30 pm on Cable Ch. 21 (CANTV) and that same night on cable in Aurora and surrounding areas at 7:30 pm on ACTV-10. The Aurora station, Aurora Community Television, Comcast Cable Ch. 10, reaches all of Aurora, Bristol, Big Rock and parts of Oswego, Sandwich, Sugar Grove and Montgomery.
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The "Public Affairs," show featuring Senator Rutherford will also air throughout the City of Rockford (and in surrounding areas) this Thursday night, Oct. 23 at 8:30 pm on Cable Ch. 17. The surrounding areas reached by Ch. 17 include Byron, Cedarville, Cherry Valley, Loves Park, Machesney Park, Mount Morris, New Milford, Portions of Ogle County, Oregon, Polo, Stillman Valley, Winnebago, Portions of Boone County and Poplar Grove.
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The "Public Affairs," show featuring Senator Rutherford will also air throughout the State of Illinois on the Illinois Channel next week. Details for the airing schedule TBA.
**********************************************************
Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
*************************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Backpacking with The New York Times and Barack Obama: way better and bigger than the Powell and Chicago Tribune endorsements?

In case you missed it, The New York Times endorses, this morning, “Public Affairs.” or is it “Public Affairs with Barack Obama and Jeff Berkowitz.” Go here to get to the blurb and link on the New York Times front page [above the fold?] or go here to get to the video directly. Either way, we think you’re going to like the five-minute video. It goes quickly. Perhaps too quickly. The fastest five minutes on the web.
***********************************************
Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.

Soon to be posted shows, taped on October 12, 2008, feature separate interviews with State Senator Dan Rutherford (R-Pontiac), discussing Obama's state senate performance and current legislative issues and politics; and once and perhaps future gubernatorial candidate Ron Gidwitz (R-Chicago), reflecting on Obama, McCain and the future of the State GOP.
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Monday, October 20, 2008

No knockout punch in 10th CD debate; neither candidate plays to win- look for Kirk to edge out Seals on Nov. 4

Revised slightly on Monday afternoon at 1:25 pm [See discussion of Bailouts and Vets, below].

10th Cong. District: 1979 to 2008

The Tenth Congressional district has been in Republican hands for almost the last three decades, with the seat held for twenty-one years by Cong. John Porter and the last eight by Cong. Mark Steven Kirk (R-Highland Park). In 2000, Kirk received, initially, the informal support of Cong. Porter and perhaps, as importantly, Porter’s wife in the Republican Primary (which support helped with the township organizations, etc) and when that didn’t put Kirk over the top, Porter officially endorsed Kirk in the last month of the primary campaign-- and Kirk then pulled away from nine other candidates, winning with more than thirty percent of the vote. Kirk prevailed in the general election over then State Rep. Lauren Beth Gash (D-Highland Park) by about two points. Gash has gone on to become sort of the equivalent of a Ward Boss for the Tenthdems.

The 2002-2008 history:

When Bush was more popular, Kirk was a Bush guy and Kirk won easily in 2002 and 2004. However, the 10th CD is now Democratic (53 to 47 for John Kerry in 2004, and probably more Democratic, now), and Dan Seals almost pulled off an upset in the Democratic Tsunami in 2006, losing 53 to 47 to Kirk. Kirk only gave Seals one debate, and Kirk was quite insulated during the run-up to the general election. The result: Seals won that debate with a much better display of his understanding of the issues and presence.

Kirk got ready for Seals and for yesterday’s Debate:

This time around, Kirk is ready for Seals. He has built up a very big lead in funds to spend (unlikely to be offset by the DCCC) and Cong. Kirk has sharpened his speaking skills, again. Further, there seems to be less intensity for Seals the second time around. In the 2006 Kirk-Seals debate at Stevenson high school, there was an overflow crowd in attendance of about 1500, with the majority being Seals supporters. Yesterday’s debate was at the Deerfield High School auditorium, said to hold around 900, and this reporter would estimate about 85% full. As the song goes, the “thrill is gone.”

The LWV format

Yesterdays “debate,” was sponsored by the League of Women Voters, the Union League Club of Chicago and others. The League’s format was used and it produced a crushingly boring “debate.” Questions were submitted by the audience to the moderator, Cindi Canary, who read them to Kirk and Seal, who took turns responding in 90 seconds to each question. The candidate who responded first had the option of a 30 second reply.

In the League’s format, no real debate is allowed. The quality of the questions was awful, with a heavy dosage of “League,” type questions. Perhaps League members dominate, unfortunately, in the submission of questions. Of course, there are no follow up questions, the candidates can’t ask questions of each other and the moderator simply repeats what she is given, like an unthinking robot, whose repeat requests for the audience to refrain from clapping and cheering are often ignored.

The candidates are allowed to avoid answering questions and throw in their standard boilerplate responses, again and again and again. Both of these candidates are very risk averse in terms of putting themselves in situations where they would face tough, probing questions, so they are pretty happy to have the League format, which has the effect, if not the intent, of giving voters minimal information about the candidates.

The War

Of course, we knew going in that Kirk supported authorizing the President to take military action in Iraq in 2002 and Seals says he would have opposed it if he had been in Congress in 2002. Kirk has been talking about “winding up,” the war for the last year or two, but of finishing the war in a way “we don’t have to go back.” Seals has been talking about a “responsible, phased withdrawal,” and apparently would be fine with the Obama proposed withdrawal of about a brigade a month from Iraq, which would remove most American troops in sixteen months, leaving some undefined number to train, fight Al Qaeda and protect the U. S. diplomats in Iraq. Nothing said yesterday changed our understanding of Kirk and Seals on Iraq.

Kirk and Seals: Anti-Parental Choice?

Kirk emphasized again and again he is a “Pro-Choice [on abortion], pro-environment, pro-teacher Republican.” It goes without saying Seals is all those things, too, as are almost all Democrats.

Of course, by pro-teacher, Kirk and Seals mean they are anti-parent, anti- parental choice or anti-school voucher-school choice. In short, Seals and Kirk are both mindless followers of the teachers unions. Both might upset the teachers unions a little bit and say they are in favor of charter schools, but they didn’t say that yesterday, as they both were engaged in a race for the bottom, in terms of avoiding any notion of competition to improve the public schools. Indeed, in this respect, Obama, who often mentions he is in favor of charter schools, is head and shoulders above these two candidates.

Pro-Israel

Both said they are pro-Israel, but Kirk said he is more pro-Israel and Seals, for whatever reason, didn’t fight Kirk on that. Israel is a weakness for Seals, but Kirk did not hammer on that yesterday, even though he did in the debate in 2006. Further, it was pretty much as if Iran, North Korea and Russia did not exist, for yesterday’s debate purposes. A pretty provincial crowd.

Gays, Guns, God, Immigration and Abortion

Kirk sometimes emphasizes he is very much pro gun control and pro gay rights, but not yesterday. Perhaps he figures everyone in the 10th already knows that. Again, it goes without saying that Seals, as a Democrat, matches Kirk on those issues. In short, on Gays, Guns, God and abortion, Kirk and Seals are liberal Democrats. Same with the environment.

Although there are slight differences on immigration, e.g., Seals seems to oppose the fence across the southern border and Kirk seems to favor it, neither wants to make a fuss about the issue. Again, slight differences on No Child Left Behind, but neither will make an issue of it.

Off Shore Drilling and oil companies

Seals says Kirk votes to subsidize oil companies and Kirk says no he doesn’t. Kirk says he is for off shore drilling and implies Seals is for sham off shore drilling, but doesn’t make much of that. Both try to out do the other in their preference for alternative energy sources.

Bailouts and Vets

Both Seals and Kirk favor the bailouts, at least as of yesterday. Kirk asserted that Seals had taken the "popular," view and not supported the bailouts. Seals denied that, apparently taking the position that he was just as good as Kirk at ignoring his constituents' preferences [voting against your District is apparently a virtue on the North Shore]. Both imply that they would like to arrest a bunch of “greedy Wall St. capitalists,” but neither is too specific on that.

Seals likes to accuse Kirk of not supporting vets and Kirk essentially says Seals is nuts on that.

Kirk and Seals: Career choices

Kirk likes to take shots at Seals performance at GE Capital and Seals likes to say Kirk has never worked outside of Washington. Kirk had a snappy response yesterday, arguing that when he wasn’t in Congress, he was in the Navy or Naval Reserve protecting “Seals.” Seals defended his performance at GE Capital, saying Kirk didn’t understand the difference between residential and commercial real estate.

Taxes

Kirk likes to argue Seals would raise the capital gains tax, remove children tax credits, bring back the marriage penalty and perhaps increase other taxes on the middle class. Seals generally denies these charges, especially on Cap Gains, arguing this is one area of disagreement between Obama and him.

Some additional differences were noted yesterday, but none that will account for who wins on November 4, 2008.

The fates of Kirk and Seals

Kirk’ fate depends on how much he has persuaded the 10th CD that he is “Mr. Independent,“ and thus not tied to Bush’s low approval rating and the tanking financial sector and economy.

Alternatively, Seal’s fate depends on how well he has tied Kirk to the War, the opportunity cost of the War in terms of foregone domestic programs and what he characterizes as the “failed Bush policies of the last eight years.” Of course, Seals tried to wrap Obama around himself yesterday, arguing if you want change, you should vote for Obama and Seals.

Who will win: the Obama equation

Pundit Russ Stewart argues Obama will get about 57% of the vote in the 10th CD. Stewart calculates that Seals would need to get 88% of the Obama vote (assuming Seals gets none of the McCain vote) to win. Using Stewart’s paradigm, this reporter estimates that Seals will get 85% of the Obama vote, meaning he comes up short, again, losing to Cong. Kirk 52% to 48%.

Seals and Kirk- something in common

As a closing thought, neither Seals nor Kirk would answer any questions from this reporter after the debate (Similarly, neither would agree to be a guest on “Public Affairs”). However, both spent a few minutes after yesterday’s debate answering questions from a Deerfield High School student. As Dirty Harry would say, a good man knows his limitations and apparently Seals and Kirk are good men, at least in that sense.
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Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
**************************************************
Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008

Berkowitz to join Johnston on Roeser's radio show tonight: Has Obama won the election or will maverick McCain become the new comeback kid?

Jeff Berkowitz will join Republican political consultant and analyst Charlie Johnston (worked on the 2006 McSweeney for 8th CD U. S. Rep. campaign) as a guest tonight on Tom Roeser’s weekly, Sunday, call-in radio show, Political Shoot-out, WLS 890 AM Radio, from 8:00 pm to 9:00 pm.
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You say you don't live within the WLS broadcast area? Not to worry. You can go here to listen to the program, live, on the web.[You may encounter some technical problems in signing on-- allow five minutes, or so, for following the prompts for technical difficulties, and you should be able to hear WLS live on the web] See here for Tom’s Blog which has Tom's thoughts on a great many matters, political and otherwise.

Upset with something Berkowitz said on his show [www.PublicAffairsTv.com] or the [Public Affairs YouTube.com page], something he wrote on this blog or just the way he looks? Tom Roeser’s show on Sunday night is your chance to fire back. A free fire zone, so to speak. Also, you can help shape the show and its topics by calling in with your questions and comments—312-591-8900. Obama mamas (Bean), McCain mavericks (Kirk)Democrats, Republicans, 700 Billion dollar Bailout promoters (Kirk, Bean and Fred Barnes), Libertarians, Independents, Communists [no collect calls, please], Palin critics, Palin groupies, Biden mistake defenders, gun grabbers, backstabbers, gun clingers, gun slingers, outside agitators and others are, of course, all welcome.

Tonight's show may touch on:

Did McCain lose the third debate and the election because he
·Made half arguments on Ayers and Acorn
·Never raised Pastor Wright and Obama’s twenty year association with a guy who said, on video, God Damn America
·Never raised the radical education views of Ayers and the close association of Ayers and Obama on Ayers' so called education reform.
·Never effectively raised Obama’s close ties to indicated felon Tony Rezko.
·Never effectively made the argument that Obama did nothing to take on public corruption in Illinois and in the Democratic Party
·Made half arguments on tax cuts, never effectively challenged Obama on his tax cuts proposals?
·Did not challenge Obama on his capital gains tax increase
·Did not Challenge Obama on his payroll tax increase?
·Never effectively raised the twelve state voter fraud challenges of Acorn
·Never argued for two party government in Washington, DC.
·Never explained his health care proposal well.

--Can Joe the Plumber unclog the blocked arteries of the McCain campaign?

-- Did the bailout flop?

--who won the the 3rd Presidential Debate,

--Can McCain not survive his inability to speak clearly, cogently and persuasively about his views?

-- why don't the presidential debate moderators ever ask follow-up questions. Do they not know how?

-- Will the Powell endorsement of Obama matter?

--Was Powell's endorsement of Obama a repudiation of the Republcan Party?

--Was putting Palin on the ticket a major mistake by McCain?

--is Fox News Channel in the tank for McCain? as much so as MSNBC is in the tank for Obama?

--Does the center right bias of Fox and the far left bias of MSNBC make CNN look "fair and balanced."

-- Can McCain turn around Obama's big lead in electoral votes (about a hundred) or is it too late?

--What are the differences of Obama and McCain on economic policy

--Did Sarah Palin ever demonstrate she has the knowledge of domestic and foreign policy issues to go the distance,

----can Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills) catch Cong. Manzullo (R-Egan) in the 16th CD.

This reporter doesn't know the topics for tonight—they are determined by Mr. Roeser, with some incisive suggestions, no doubt, by his lovely, energetic and intelligent wife Lillian. However, an educated guess is that the questions will consist of various Illinois, national and Presidential political issues, possibly selected from the above, or below, questions, some of which are holdovers from prior episodes of "Political Shootout," or "Public Affairs."

Of course, you can call and ask any of the below questions or whatever you like. As with University of Chicago Ph. D. prelim questions in economics over the years, many of the questions on Political Shoot-out stay the same each week, only the answers change [or do they?]. And you are Free to Choose, so to speak, as this is the land of Milton Friedman, the late, great Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics from the University of Chicago [WWMFS, i.e., what would Milton Friedman say? is the question we classically ask, followed with:


--Is there something fishy about the compensation of WTTW's, NBC-5's and the Sun-Times Carol Marin?

--Did WTTW's Joel Weisman get it way wrong when he stated on a recent Chicago Week in Review that "the only difference on economic issues [between Obama and McCain] is that Obama wants to lower taxes on the 'middle,' class."

--Did none of the panelists challenge Weisman because (a)they all share his liberal bias, (b) they are all wusses, (c) some are conflicted because they are clients of Weisman, (d) all of the above, (e) none of the above

--Does Weisman have a major league conflict of interest that nobody in the MSM wants to raise? Why?

--Why did only one member of the MSM go after State's Attorney candidate Anita Alvarez (D) for her bizarre defense of taking contributions from those "under investigation."

--Are the MSM generally in the tank for Alvarez?

--Do the MSM think Alvarez ought to be able to gerrymander the questions she gets in a presser?

-- Could Paul Vallas win as an Independent for Governor?

-- Who is the favorite to win the Republican Primary for Governor?

--Who is the favorite to win the Democratic Primary for Governor?

--Has Keith Oblermann completely lost his mind?

--Who is most liberal: Olbermann, Maddow or Matthews?

--Which network is most biased: Fox News Channel, MSNBC, PBS, CNN, ABC, NBC or CBS.

--Is Tim Russert turning over in his grave when he sees the growing dominance of Olbermann, Maddow and Matthews over what is left of the NBC news division.

--Will Cong. Jackson be the next Junior Senator from the State of Illinois? Or will it be Tammy Duckworth? Cong. Jan Schakowsky? Cong. Rahm Emanuel? Lisa Madigan? Senator Donne Trotter?

--Does the Chicago Public School system spend more than $14,000 per kid per year to try to educate kids? Does Arne Duncan tell the truth about this? If not, why not?

--Was Barack Obama Emil Jones' show pony, as Senator Rauschenberger contends? [watch here]

--Was Obama way too cautious in his handling of the Pastor Disaster? in his selection of a VP? Will Pastor Wright be an issue in the Presidential race in the next 44 days?

--Is Obama's cautious nature both his strength and his weakness?

--IsMcCain suffering from buyer's remorse?

--Are voters still concerned that they do not share Obama's values? Will that concern be offset by citizen concern over the "bailout economy."

--Will voters become increasingly concerned about Gov. Palin's lack of national experience lack of knowledge of national security or foreign policy issues? Will the debate with Biden do in Palin?

--In light of what has transpired about Rev. Wright, Rezko and Ayers, does Sen. Dillard reqret the TV ad he cut for Obama last year. [Watch Sen. Dillard discuss this topic].

-Will the state GOP cave in the next few months on its hostility to increased taxes? Will House Republican leader Cross lead the capitulation?

-Is it now unlikely that 2006 10th CD Democratic nominee Dan Seals [D-Wilmette] can come back to beat Cong. Kirk [R-Highland Park] this year?

--Does Obama's presence at the top of the ballot give Seals an increasingly small chance to beat suburban agenda Kirk? Are both Seals and Kirk playing a prevent defense? Isn't that a dumb strategy for Seals?

--What do Seals and Oberweis have in common?

-Is WTTW's Chicago Tonight in need of an aggressive political interviewer to boost its sagging ratings and its lack of balance? Which cable TV personality in the Chicago Metro area could provide it?

--Did WTTW gets it's money's worth of convention coverage from Marin, Brackett and Samuels?

--Should Chicago Week in Review be renamed "The Week reviewed by liberals."

--Is Carol Marin just a "Working gal."

--Is it past time for a change in leadership in the State GOP?

--Will Andy McKenna, Jr. be kicked upstairs after the November 4, 2008 election? Are the money guys getting restless?

- Could Colonel Jill Morgenthaler (D-Des Plaines) upset first term Republican incumbent Cong. Peter Roskam in the Illinois 6th CD? Watch Morgenthaler go after Roskam here. Why is Roskam hiding from Public Affairs? Why does Roskam hide from probing questions?

--Could Scott Harper upset ten year Republican incumbent Cong. Judy Biggert in the Illinois 13th CD. Watch Harper go after Biggert here. Is Biggert hiding from Public Affairs? Biggert hiding from probing questions?

-- Is Ozinga a likely winner over Halvorsen in the 11th? Halvorsen just wrong for the District?

--Could Greenberg upset Bean in the 8th CD? Watch a virtual conversation w/Bean-Greenberg here. Where will Greenberg get the money to finance such an upset?

--Does the City Club of Chicago exhibit bad judgment or bias in it's decisions as to whom to invite or not to invite to speak to the Club.

--When the City Club of Chicago invited Republican Cong. Kirk to speak, it followed up on that with an invitation to his opponent, Democrat Dan Seals, to speak. Why were Democrat Seals and 8th CD Republican Nominee Steve Greenberg treated differently by the City Club of Chicago? Liberal Democratic Bias?
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Jeff Berkowitz, Show Host/Producer of "Public Affairs," and Executive Legal Recruiter doing legal search can be reached at JBCG@aol.com. *************************************************************
"Public Affairs," is a weekly political interview show airing in Chicago on CANTV, in the Chicago metro area and in Aurora on Comcast and also often on the Illinois Channel. You can watch the shows, including archived shows going back to 2005, here.
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Recently posted shows on the Public Affairs YouTube page now include a show taped Sep. 30 with Cong. Don Manzullo (R-Egan, 16th CD) about his no vote on the bailout, jobs, trade and other issues related to his election contest with Democrat Robert Abboud, a show taped Sunday, Sep. 28, 2008 with State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) and a show taped on Sunday, Sep. 21,2008 with 16th Cong. Dist. Democatic Nominee Robert Abboud (D-Barrington Hills), two shows featuring clips and interviews, primarily from the Democratic and Republican National Party conventions, go here to watch 2nd Convention clip show and shows with Cook County Cmsr. and Obama Media Team Member Forrest Claypool and much more.
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